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Feb 19, 03:28
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@alamo23445 @jtourzan that’s a 13f report
13fs don’t include futures or OTC positions
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Feb 19, 03:26
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@steve47285 do you see a distinction between consequentialism and utilitarianism?
we can start there
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Feb 19, 03:20
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@Ryan_Thielke Of course not
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Feb 19, 03:20
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@patchw1se I don’t make the rules
I just report the news
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Feb 19, 02:32
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Would you rather have significant inheritance taxes or significant taxes on unrealized gains?
Tahra Hoops (@TahraHoops)
AHHHHHHHHHH https://t.co/T7ZKK5JRvA
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Feb 19, 02:08
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@steve47285 u are confusing consequentialism under uncertainty with selfish utilitarianism under perfect information
aka you misdefined your objective function and then built a lattice to nowhere on it
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Feb 19, 02:07
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@jtourzan We call them “futures”
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Feb 19, 02:07
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@steve47285 u are confusing consequentialism under certainty with selfish utilitarianism under perfect information
aka you misdefined your objective function and then built a lattice to nowhere on it
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Feb 19, 00:34
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Kalsi has more alpha on rates than fed funds futures
👀
This is a big deal https://t.co/ohdA14Rpbv
Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_)
The Federal Reserve just put out an incredible paper about Kalshi's data.
"Our results suggest that Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers."
https://t.co/cw5GrDFse6
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Feb 18, 17:48
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conflict is inflationary https://t.co/Fb3FMARQrQ
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Feb 18, 17:13
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pretty sure the only “deal” out there is end the war https://t.co/GpLXizU8Kd
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Feb 18, 13:38
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someone should do this for ccp https://t.co/EDDPUpyI5C https://t.co/lvFOSHvlS4
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Feb 18, 10:16
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goodnight sweet prince https://t.co/c17TCdVT7z
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Feb 17, 20:07
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sometimes being early is worse than being wrong
https://t.co/ZvoUf8HAQy
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Feb 16, 23:13
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this describes a lot of doomers
folks who claim to be concerned consequentialists but then prioritize purity spirals + cheap talk over bringing about better lightcones https://t.co/PbhUzjii0B
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Feb 16, 19:19
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this below video looks real, and is impressive
the glass shattering above is obviously fake
https://t.co/lGlgXFlT9P
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Feb 16, 19:18
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Two things can be true at the same time
1. China has made awesome progress on robots
2. They continue to troll the west with videos that are clearly fake
https://t.co/2VIKaxjoh6 https://t.co/nwBsZwISwr
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Feb 15, 22:39
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https://t.co/w6Eqriaxpq
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Feb 15, 16:03
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seems obvious that Restore splits the right vote three ways along w Reform and Conservatives
thus guaranteeing Labor another cycle, no? https://t.co/7K5tHSbTv5
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Feb 15, 01:26
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Ray is right that globalism is dead
he’s wrong about who wins what’s next https://t.co/34g6SRC1dz
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Feb 14, 17:20
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https://t.co/D53NooOCrX https://t.co/aokQBRo7VA
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Feb 14, 12:12
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remember when the doomers told you China would never catch up bc of POLITICS
Pepperidge Farm remembers
and so does the Ramble
https://t.co/q3QU1NbqWz https://t.co/610nMqSbyU https://t.co/LRE0NFz1iu
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Feb 14, 03:05
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From last weeks ramble
https://t.co/WLrGxdVRa7 https://t.co/8S21RoVatl https://t.co/N8Hty3LFID
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Feb 13, 20:24
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bc he’s not an idiot https://t.co/Vs4bmKcQqr
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Feb 13, 17:06
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btw, you may have missed it but GoT is back with the fastball
https://t.co/qZ0IYA38DD
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Feb 13, 13:03
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https://t.co/CGgkOzXEoQ
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Feb 12, 21:04
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what did heck did Mondelez $MDLZ do to animal crackers?
is nothing sacred?
going short one share tomorrow out of spite https://t.co/0YmkfqgDtv
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Feb 12, 18:10
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feels like a non-event
obviously if there's a peace deal they will get back on the dollar
obviously if the war in Ukraine persists, the sanctions will continue
https://t.co/hrZZaoiU7e
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Feb 12, 17:37
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friends don't let friends trade option spreads on IBKR mobile in between meetings
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Feb 12, 17:37
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tfw you thought you closed your position yesterday like a nice responsible trader but you actually doubled it up and now silver is down 10% 🤣😜🤓
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Feb 12, 14:03
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sometimes it just feels like they want us to lose https://t.co/9FSny1hLzQ https://t.co/oZPNenujMY
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Feb 12, 13:28
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Great counterpoints to the llm fad here from Will.
But note this paragraph could also serve to describe the entire service industry.
“I saw the best minds of my generation, destroyed by the service economy, sated by uber eats and Patagonia fleeces
dragging themselves through https://t.co/p2qWOHirml https://t.co/0YTlxbj3A8
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Feb 12, 11:47
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three things I’ve said before born out by this chart:
1. Agents eat tokens like kids eat skittles
2. Local models are coming
3. The west is still not competitive at open source (thx doomers) https://t.co/Mesz9kBgNa
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Feb 12, 00:19
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Legacy SaaS isn’t under attack from local models but from the competition they empower.
So they lose customers and margin… https://t.co/blg4FwBLSR
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Feb 11, 22:47
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agents seem pretty bullish crypto
I feel a lot more comfortable giving them a wallet than my banking information https://t.co/kDCu0D1KT3
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Feb 11, 02:57
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“30% across the board tariffs”
what’s that sound?
the Overton window whooshing past https://t.co/1EsBU1mrZQ
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Feb 10, 21:57
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folks are tired of silver
too crazy
and that’s a good thing https://t.co/oOLlWP8EQC
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Feb 10, 20:13
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imagine getting credit for investments you made with stolen money https://t.co/m5UqyGNBwK
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Feb 10, 18:30
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Jakob is building something special down in the Gundo
if u wanna build things in the world of atoms, I'd recommend taking a look and applying
https://t.co/tV3IGIGedL
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Feb 10, 15:39
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.@balajis framework here is in the direction of truth, but he is too pessimistic
When the empire could not longer hold it's internal contradictions, it split along the Roman-Byzantine axis.
What comes next after Pax Americana isn't a split but a union.
https://t.co/BXavqUyQ7a
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Feb 10, 15:01
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jokes aside this gonna (further) radicalize incel zoomers
the horseshoe is real https://t.co/EYnQbs3M8a
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Feb 10, 13:22
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globalists lecturing you about China’s green “revolution”
meanwhile https://t.co/ZtEKLh2fiv
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Feb 09, 17:42
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you stole money to bribe politicians
go away and never come back
https://t.co/FMkpQP66S6
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Feb 09, 15:02
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this is what happens when demand shifts from western (dollar based, real-yield sensitive) investors to emerging market players looking to diversify FROM dollars
tomorrow is not guaranteed to look like today
https://t.co/qa2HsUvqR4
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Feb 09, 14:56
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apis > slides
https://t.co/L8MGPOQ7Q5
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Feb 09, 01:13
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read this to understand what is next https://t.co/1OGroOinq9 https://t.co/80P7fE3Kf7
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Feb 08, 22:53
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woah, we're up to #2
breaking out of finance!
thanks for you support everyone, this helps me keep rambling https://t.co/znIowQQCE9
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Feb 08, 17:53
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this guy get carried out and it’s not even a difficult conversation https://t.co/musj0474cJ
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Feb 08, 16:53
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macron: $30m to leapfrog the US in AI
#ForSure
starmer: hold my beer… https://t.co/61tzcXwTI7 https://t.co/kuVKDErdJj
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Feb 08, 16:08
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https://t.co/9PZIM3eY0x
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Feb 08, 14:31
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.@tszzl lmk when you need intros, I would not recommend doing a tour of duty in a financial sponsors pod
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Feb 08, 13:48
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SF vs New York - Chapter 701
They send Roon to the banker mines for a couple 90hr weeks to learn how to format PowerPoints https://t.co/n5UpG3IQQP https://t.co/oBgsJ4fjop
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Feb 08, 06:05
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Congratulations Eliezer
great success 🍾 https://t.co/XlkL7b4rHq
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Feb 08, 03:19
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local AI is coming...
https://t.co/s9TCueFsrQ
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Feb 07, 19:41
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Gold in China https://t.co/hUK7pJ7s5T
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Feb 06, 18:14
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euros be like "we're doing a mediocre SF pre-seed to leapfrog the US in AI"
h/t @runaway_vol https://t.co/0uYTYoOptU https://t.co/L4bSDK6iI1
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Feb 06, 16:23
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wow, truly elite company
thanks guys
https://t.co/ePCI8bqKeb https://t.co/X4KAIxzAyf
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Feb 06, 13:56
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Being a reserve currency is about humility and Beijing has none.
https://t.co/AcxJjZJpkg https://t.co/KuX1UMkh5y https://t.co/RQoV6FsAA0
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Feb 06, 13:46
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I wasted a decade trying to help these companies sell their data in bite size chunks to AI agents.
Laughed at, gaslit, sued.
Not saying I won, but they are definitely losing now. https://t.co/PCYCGXL2g2
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Feb 06, 12:46
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you are the tail
the dog is in Shanghai https://t.co/X7Y7ZeR8lt
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Feb 05, 22:54
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I feel seen https://t.co/NzGZ36SWMp
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Feb 05, 22:41
|
ehh, nevermind.
maybe EVs do need mechanical handles
https://t.co/C6ZjPgOJEu
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Feb 05, 21:54
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software is dead
the gpu killed it
https://t.co/Q03dY7AsTm
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Feb 05, 18:29
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@DarioCpx interesting, looks like most of the open interest is in the April and June curves, which is smart, keep your short out longer than the suspension so you have time to cover even after the ban lifts
but yeah, their curve is now in backwardation
so it's physical vs futures https://t.co/M6rGvtzw4y
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Feb 05, 17:57
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@DarioCpx my bet is this 30k number is also underreported since he sold enough last night to crash us 17%, so let's call it 50-60k lots.
many big funds have rules about how crowded they can be in a particular market like "don't be more than X% long or short the daily float"
Meaning he's
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Feb 05, 17:52
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Look, not saying you should bet the farm on something that moves 7% an hour
but this Bian guy is short the entire stock of silver in Shanghai and CANNOT SELL MORE for a month
@DarioCpx can sound zany, but he's onto something here https://t.co/YSHLp992Wy https://t.co/9uibhMWnjX
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Feb 05, 14:49
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maybe we should squeeze the shit out of this guy huh? https://t.co/Rgjm4dhCBc
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Feb 05, 13:58
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wait ur telling me it was one idiot with a big bag leaning on the sell button?
man I gotta update my priors…
may flush some people out, but eventually, he’s gotta buy those futs back https://t.co/n3WDPTA6Yn
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Feb 05, 12:01
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we’re at the point now in UK where “the sledgehammer blow didn’t even damage the spinal cord!” is a considered a legitimate reason to legalize assault https://t.co/fFyWpgXbdj https://t.co/C5zsn9fWnV
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Feb 05, 05:50
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Told ya
If you are bearish dollars because you think euros are gonna sell
you are bearish US stocks https://t.co/gOPxcENjJu
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Feb 05, 04:01
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price action implies forced selling coming out of China not US, China led the crash
would make sense, if you are forced selling in the US you wait for US hours
other explanation...US banker attack, would see the reverse... https://t.co/McBgjWd6Uy
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Feb 05, 03:41
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gold not following so I’m hedging by going short futures net net
deleveraging https://t.co/yTawVLC2tl
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Feb 05, 03:17
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if you guys are gonna take my frame the least you could do is give me a shout out
@Lingling_Wei @WSJ
https://t.co/Q07nGgIU8Z https://t.co/uMB0IHLTm1 https://t.co/vppOZ9mO1Z
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Feb 04, 17:54
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wait, I thought Hong Kong was part of China?
maybe I got confused @RnaudBertrand 🤔 https://t.co/mEFQedAsxD
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Feb 04, 16:10
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closing the dating app short at a $100 loss.
I go tiny on stuff like this to force myself to track it - skin in the game.
imagine being a public company so shook by this that you escalate to regulators
https://t.co/buPJapqeKL
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Feb 04, 16:00
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let my GPT Pro plan lapse last month
OpenAI has lost the Mandate of Heaven
https://t.co/T5sf1cxKWj
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Feb 04, 13:50
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seems sketch https://t.co/WqBXjzZEU7
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Feb 04, 12:47
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https://t.co/J5dLAs0cpK
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Feb 03, 23:17
|
your every move on a computer is already tracked by people trying to sell you ads
ai enables your employer to follow suit
it will be a painful transition, but much healthier in the long run than waiting for Joe in accounting to get back to you with the TPS report https://t.co/8pUpOJEMka
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Feb 03, 20:16
|
The AI “Air Pocket” is here.
It’s a simple story
The money that went to buy backs is going to capex now.
The revenue growth is years away.
Investors don’t want to finance that gap forever.
We trade lower. https://t.co/BG38FGpbvi
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Feb 03, 20:08
|
Software is dead
(Disclosure I’m short software) https://t.co/3NMaCpo3sr
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Feb 03, 18:45
|
initiating our short on Match and Bumble here.
these products are broken
paid roses are a scam and this thread shows why
https://t.co/CSC6fV6Xqi
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Feb 03, 15:20
|
deep cuts https://t.co/meCqOfCgnb
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Feb 03, 14:20
|
looks like I got their attention 🤣
apparently the label for this retaliatory hacking is Honker?
sounds like a slur but gemini says it isn't https://t.co/ublmqAWXMF
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Feb 03, 14:11
|
Thanks for having my Jack, good times!
Please excuse the catfish thumbnail folks. This is what a decade investing in previous metals will do you.
https://t.co/8YkiD1ZVEX
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Feb 02, 20:38
|
China needed Hong Kong for the quasi dollar financial system and we gave it back with no strings
now they want Taiwan for the AI supply chain
you would too
https://t.co/xoq4GyXsde
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Feb 02, 15:33
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“Non tariff barriers” https://t.co/DWLnWYrJN9
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Feb 02, 12:47
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https://t.co/S5QcQGN1nA
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Feb 02, 04:30
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down 10%, then rallies ~7%, all on a sunday night
meanwhile stocks down 1.5%
SK Hynix down 7%
dollar up 70bps
treasuries unch
hope ur long vol fam
looks like this is going to bleed into stocks soon
https://t.co/IAuLj8oVHq https://t.co/3HgiENn79v
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Feb 01, 18:26
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oh my this seems fun/useful
trading silver over the weekend?!?
why am I just learning of this now lol https://t.co/SZV0s37hxM
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Feb 01, 13:50
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Good stuff Xi
now you just need to:
1) let Chinese folks get their money OUT
2) let western folks get their money IN
3) let us buy + fix your broken ass banks
4) let me short the worst ones
5) move from pledge repo to asset repo
good luck!! https://t.co/w01Bbp00EB
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Jan 31, 23:56
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https://t.co/ARCIKUjNap
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Jan 31, 16:51
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FREE KAYA https://t.co/fDq4XRo2lm
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Jan 31, 03:09
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Procuring xyz for Gates was totally fine…
but “adderal fro bridge tournaments” was a bridge too far for Epstein
we live in a simulation https://t.co/x1XebXQTTY
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Jan 31, 00:06
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something delightful about how red is green and green is red in Chinese financial markets https://t.co/oeQXmztWWy
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Jan 30, 21:56
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Andy was dead on here, both in terms of dynamics and timing.
Props https://t.co/Pek0IVNqyV
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Jan 30, 18:39
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may double again at the close, people still short gamma
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Jan 30, 18:38
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Silver down 33%
SLV = $71
doubling my delta here
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Jan 30, 17:54
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when in pain, remember to reflect
if there was a tell, it was very front end in London got less backwardated.
lesson in that https://t.co/alMxI4rx3B
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Jan 30, 17:51
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short gamma
wait for it to break this... https://t.co/YppfLLGln4
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Jan 30, 17:13
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guess it's no surprise the bears attack on option expiry day, reminds me of October
people who buy calls hold them and don't hedge the delta
people who sell them, hedge
market short gamma, down 20% isn't just flushing weak hands
I'm buying a little bit here, will add if we https://t.co/E6GOJ6hiAl
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Jan 30, 10:16
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if Warsh really is Volcker 2.0
this is too high
may take a while to flow through
but watch CNH https://t.co/7aOUFuTeRg
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Jan 30, 10:00
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silver down 15%
gold down 7%
copper down 4%
stocks down 1%
dollar up 40bps https://t.co/Q5NNe9ss0w https://t.co/r6DA7CWp4b
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Jan 30, 03:16
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Now we go fight at $104, and if that doesn't hold...
bad times
https://t.co/HlALpoMDPm https://t.co/YlMnwB4qHI
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Jan 30, 03:03
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my bags do not like this Walsh news
not one bit https://t.co/hiU8Kkwtg6
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Jan 30, 00:23
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shorting Elon gets you likes
longing Elon makes you money
which way anon
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://t.co/HsTxzuR35g
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Jan 29, 16:58
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and then rallied back 4% in an hour
gotta be the case that banks are reducing balance sheet in either direction for precious metals right now
seems we are getting increasingly dramatic intraday moves https://t.co/utlsE0Q7N2
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Jan 29, 11:35
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you are the tail
the dog is in Shanghai https://t.co/F1BsKrEDqk https://t.co/AQEViwDpgc
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